The foreign policy of the USA has experienced many changes. Various philosophers and experts have presented their ideas about the relations of the USA with other nations. Some of these propositions are firmly established from empirical research, whereas some are not as established. (My research topic would be firmly established ideas from empirical research due to my interest in the topic).
Some experts believed that the interdependence of the USA and other nations would reduce conflicts. When a nation depends on another for economic or other reasons, the chances of peaceful coexistence become high. Empirical research has proved that the proposition that causes mutual interdependence reduces conflicts. The analysis and studies of the cold war era proved that the interdependence of states mitigates the chances of conflicts (Oneal & Russett, 1997). The interstate economic dependence might be measured through the bilateral trade-to-GDP ratio. The higher the ratio, the higher the chances of peaceful mutual coexistence. In reference to China, this proven proposition might be applicable, but one should not disregard the other elements of relations between both nations. Such factors include the disputes on the South China Sea and Twain. Given a plethora of disagreements between two military giants, the proven proposition of interdependence might be applied with caution. The USA policymakers might try to reduce the interdependence on China so that the options of foreign policy might not become limited. The restrictions imposed on Chinese telecom giant, Huawei might be analyzed in the context of international relations. It seems that Washington wants to rely less on Chinese technologies and organizations because of the risk of espionage. The ban shuts down the operations of Huawei in the USA (Gartenberg, 2020). Besides reducing reliance on China through multiple measures, Washington is trying to impose sanctions on Beijing. One recent example is the imposition of a ban on Chinese officials due to alleged human rights violations of Muslim minorities (Zengerle, 2020). The ban might be viewed as a foreign policy tool to punish China. The reduced interdependence of both nations might not be good for peace; however, the possession of weapons of mass destruction by both might be a hurdle in initiating a war.
On the contrary, the proposition that peace prevails during the liberal rules is not so established through empirical studies and evidence. The data has proved that liberals were involved in as many conflicts and were as non-liberals (Russett, Layne, Spiro, & Doyle, 1995). There are practical problems in statistically proving some points like the length of the war and the number of causalities (Russett, Layne, Spiro, & Doyle, 1995). The implication of this fact in the context of US china relations would be in the form of the unchanged possibility of conflicts. The change in the Chinese regime might not reduce the possibility of war between both countries. Another important theory to analyze the chance of war between the USA and China is the Selectorate Theory of War. According to this theory, there are fewer chances of an armed conflict between two democracies (De Mesquita, Morrow, Siverson, & Smith, 2004). The implication for US foreign policy would be preparedness for war because China is not a democratic state. However, one should not ignore the factor of both nations’ military power at the time of analysis of the USA’s foreign policy. Both might be involved in a limited conflict in the South China Sea; however, a large-scale war is improbable. Selectorate Theory of War might not be blindly applied in the context of US-China relations.
The foreign policy of the USA has passed through various changes. Various experts have coined multiple theories. Empirical studies do not support all the propositions regarding foreign policy. The investigation and data of the cold war era evidenced that states’ interdependence reduces the chances of conflicts between nations. However, in China’s context, the point of the military power of both nations should be considered because both might not start a full-fledged armed conflict.
References
De Mesquita, B., Morrow, J., Siverson, R., & Smith, A. (2004). Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War. World Politics, 56(3), 363-388. Retrieved February 10, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/25054264
Gartenberg, C. (2020, May 13). Donald Trump extends Huawei ban through May 2021. The Verge. Retrieved February 10, 2021, from https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21257675/trump-extends-huawei-ban-may-2021-china-us-android-google-telecom
Oneal, J., & Russett, B. (1997). The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985. International Studies Quarterly, 41(2), 267-293. Retrieved February 10, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3013934
Russett, B., Layne, C., Spiro, D., & Doyle, M. (1995). The Democratic Peace. International Security, 19(4), 164-184. Doi: 10.2307/2539124
Zengerle, P. (2020, June 18). Trump signs bill pressuring China over Uighur Muslim crackdown. Reuters. Retrieved February 10, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang-idUSKBN23O3EW
